What’s The Play? Ep. 1: Do You Attack?

What’s The Play? Ep. 1: Do You Attack?

Welcome to the first “What’s the Play?”, where we discuss what choice the player should make. In this first example, the choice is not one that leads to lethal. Instead, it’s more of a theoretical debate as to which play is correct. (In our actual game, the choice didn’t end up mattering; this is about the times where it would.)

The choice is for TonyGeeeee, playing a fairly standard Traditional Armory list, vs. me, Paradox, on a Skycrag build. Here is the board state:

 

It is about to be Tony’s turn. I just attacked with a Soulfire Drake I drew off the top of my deck, and he blocked with his Icaria to prevent himself from dying. Just before my attack, Tony attacked with his Icaria, giving him one Icaria Warcry. I had zero Warcry triggers in my deck, meaning the only single card in my deck that could kill him would be an Obliterate or another Soulfire Drake (there are three more in the deck.) Tony does not know what is in my hand, but he knows I’ve been sitting on these same two cards for about two or three turns now and knows that neither card is a torch. In Tony’s void, there are some Rakano Artisans and a Sword of Icaria, and at least one Smuggler’s Stash is in the deck.

Tony starts his turn and draws a sigil. Here is the question: do you attack with your Throne Warden?

Tony argued that yes, he should attack with Throne Warden, regardless of what’s in my hand. He needs to end the game to limit the number of turns I get to take. Moreover, if I draw no units or no Permafrosts, then I can’t answer the Throne Warden and he wins. The odds are stacked against him in this scenario, and his best bet is just to end the game ASAP. If he attacks with Throne Warden, I follow up with a unit, and he draws a weapon, he can smash the unit and then win the game.

However, I argued that no, he should not attack. Because of the Entomb Trigger on the Soulfire Drake, every unit in my deck has a chance to charge. Even without considering the Censari Brigand in my hand (which he could have deciphered but not known for sure), almost any combination of cards in my deck would kill him; an Oni Ronin with charge + a Brigand, an Oni Ronin with charge followed by a torch, etc. From my stand point, I’m very scared of whatever large thing the Icaria hit, and while there is a good chance he doesn’t draw it, it seems like his best chance of winning. His Throne Warden on the field blocks everything in my deck other than Soulfire Drake or something that gained flying from the Soulfire Drake.

We debated for a while and couldn’t reach a conclusion, though both of us certainly recognizing the merits of each play. So, for an interesting discussion, we turn to you: What’s the Play?

-Paradox


2 thoughts on “What’s The Play? Ep. 1: Do You Attack?

  1. Attack! He’s got the board state to win, push it; no point gambling on who draws a game winner first at this point.

    Whilst he does have better odds of drawing something big Vs your odds of drawing charge, if you don’t draw charge, you’ve got a flying unit he can’t block anyway.

    To ball park odds, if you’re running 25 units each with a 50% chance of charge, it’s 1 in 6 chance you draw charge .. and if you only have a handful of 5+ damage units and don’t have a torch in hand, then incoming face smashy

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